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Evidence of intense ongoing endemic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt

Author(s): Miller, FD (Miller, F. DeWolfe); Abu-Raddad, LJ (Abu-Raddad, Laith J.) Source: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 107 (33): 14757-14762 AUG 17 2010

Egypt has the highest prevalence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. An estimated 9.8% are chronically infected. Numerous HCV prevalence studies in Egypt have published various estimates from different Egyptian communities, suggesting that Egypt, relative to the other nations of the world, might be experiencing intense ongoing HCV transmission. More importantly, a new national study provided an opportunity to apply established epidemiologic models to estimate incidence. Validated mathematical models for estimating incidence from age-specific prevalence were used. All previous prevalence studies of HCV in Egypt were reviewed and used to estimate incidence provided that there was sufficient age-specific data required by the models. All reports of anti-HCV antibody prevalence were much higher than any single other national estimate. Age was the strongest and most consistently associated factor to HCV prevalence and HCV RNA positivity. It was not possible to establish a prior reference point for HCV prevalence or incidence to compare with the 2009 incidence estimates. The modeled incidence from the national study and collectively from the modeled incidence from the previous community studies was 6.9/1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.5-7.4] per person per year and 6.6/1,000 (95% CI, 5.1-7.0) per person per year, respectively. Projected to the age structure of the Egyptian population, more than 500,000 new HCV infections per year were estimated. Iatrogenic transmission is the most likely, underlining exposure to the ongoing transmission. The study demonstrates the urgency to reduce HCV transmission in Egypt.

Author(s):  Miller, FD (Miller, F. DeWolfe); Abu-Raddad, LJ (Abu-Raddad, Laith J.)
Source:  PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 107 (33): 14757-14762 AUG 17 2010
Language:  English
Document Type:  Article
Author Keywords:  incidence; iatrogentic transmission; parenteral transmission; Middle East and North Africa; mathematical modeling
KeyWords Plus:  HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS; BLOOD-DONORS; RISK-FACTORS; NILE DELTA; SCHISTOSOMA-MANSONI; HIGH SEROPREVALENCE; INFECTION-CONTROL; IRANIAN DENTISTS; HCV PREVALENCE; HIV-INFECTION
Addresses:  [Miller, F. DeWolfe] Univ Hawaii, Dept Trop Med Med Microbiol & Pharmacol, John A Burns Sch Med, Honolulu, HI 96813 USA; [Abu-Raddad, Laith J.] Cornell Univ, Qatar Fdn Educ City, Infect Dis Epidemiol Grp, Weill Cornell Med Coll Qatar, Doha, Qatar; [Abu-Raddad, Laith J.] Cornell Univ, Dept Publ Hlth, Weill Cornell Med Coll, New York, NY 10065 USA; [Abu-Raddad, Laith J.] Fred Hutchinson Canc Res Ctr, Vaccine & Infect Dis Inst, Seattle, WA 98109 USA
Reprint Address:  Miller, FD, Univ Hawaii, Dept Trop Med Med Microbiol & Pharmacol, John A Burns Sch Med, Honolulu, HI 96813 USA.
Funding Agency:  William Fulbright Scholarship - Qatar National Research Fund
Publisher:  NATL ACAD SCIENCES
Publisher Address:  2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
ISSN:  0027-8424
29-char Source Abbrev.:  PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA
ISO Source Abbrev.:  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
Subject Category:  Multidisciplinary Sciences
ISI Document Delivery No.:  643IA
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